Every pundit seems to agree that John McCain's choice of running mate means that he can no longer attack Brack Obama on his level of experience.  The obvious line of reasoning is that the introduction of Palin, who has minimal experience compared to McCain and Biden, undercuts those attacks.  But this is an overly simplified, unsophisticated conclusion that fails to account for the range of possible dynamics of such an exchange.  What's more, it's exactly that kind of simple, bare-bones deduction that left the entire political world unable to anticipate this move in the first place.  John McCain's thinking is not limited to these kinds of first level analyses-- he's more complex than that, and that's why he was two steps ahead of the pundits on this one.

No, I think that the McCain camp may recognize that Palin has exactly the right amount of experience to lure the Obama camp into a discussion that will ultimately be to their detriment.  If they continued their course before the Republican VP announcement, the experience debate, while perhaps remaining a constant drone in the background, would at least stay off the front page, which is how Obama wants it-- needs it.  If you don't punch back, you take some damage, but the fight ends faster.  Punching back when you're weak, when you can't effectively counter can ultimately lead to much much more damage.  The Obama camp knows that, and so they've kept their mouths shut on the experience issue.

The selection of Palin, and the Obama camp's (or maybe just some half-cocked spokeperson's) initial response suggests that they may think that now they CAN counter, and so may try.  But Palin can argue.  She has executive experience while Obama has none.  She ran a town, and now she's been running a state for two years.  She's the only one on either ticket with any experience as a commander-in-chief (of the AK National Guard).  For all the talk everyone's doing about what they will do, she HAS done. She's produced, and her record in AK seems impressive.

But here's the real trap for the Dems, and why the selection of Palin was such a brilliant move. Whatever the outcome of this potential experience debate, Republican victory doesn't depend on winning the argument.  The McCain camp only needs the argument to take place.  By baiting the Obamaniacs into responding, McCain keeps the experience argument front and center.  Two things come of this.  1) He keeps Obama talking about his experience.  He forces Obama to pull out his paper thin resume.  2) In the end, McCain can claim victory by simply pointing out that we've engaged all this time and energy comparing the Republican VP nominee's experience to the Democratic Presidential nominee's experience.  And Obama's response provides validation of the issue's importance.  All that is required is for the Dems to walk into this trap.

And that takes one thing: confidence.  If you're getting beat up, and you're deciding whether to quietly take it and end it fast, or punch back and prolong it, the determining factor is your confidence that you can punch back effectively.  Palin's level of experience-- not too little but not too much-- coupled with Obama's legendary arrogance, is the magic ingredient in this process.

In a single move, the McCain camp has expertly targeted Obama's two greatest weaknesses: inexperience and arrogance.

And so, I disagree. The McCain camp not only can but SHOULD continue to target Obama's inexperience, and they should set Palin on the task. She should be the relentless attack dog, bringing up Obama's experience at every turn and comparing it to her own.  Dare him to answer.  Lure him to his own demise.